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William Mallios S. Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets. Adaptive Drift Modeling


A guide to modeling analyses for financial and sports gambling markets, with a focus on major current events Addressing the highly competitive and risky environments of current-day financial and sports gambling markets, Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets details the dynamic process of constructing effective forecasting rules based on both graphical patterns and adaptive drift modeling (ADM) of cointegrated time series. The book uniquely identifies periods of inefficiency that these markets oscillate through and develops profitable forecasting models that capitalize on irrational behavior exhibited during these periods. Providing valuable insights based on the author's firsthand experience, this book utilizes simple, yet unique, candlestick charts to identify optimal time periods in financial markets and optimal games in sports gambling markets for which forecasting models are likely to provide profitable trading and wagering outcomes. Featuring detailed examples that utilize actual data, the book addresses various topics that promote financial and mathematical literacy, including: Higher order ARMA processes in financial markets The effects of gambling shocks in sports gambling markets Cointegrated time series with model drift Modeling volatility Throughout the book, interesting real-world applications are presented, and numerous graphical procedures illustrate favorable trading and betting opportunities, which are accompanied by mathematical developments in adaptive model forecasting and risk assessment. A related web site features updated reviews in sports and financial forecasting and various links on the topic. Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets is an excellent book for courses on financial economics and time series analysis at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. The book is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners working in the areas of retail markets, quant funds, hedge funds, and time series. Also, anyone with a general interest in learning about how to profit from the financial and sports gambling markets will find this book to be a valuable resource.

8745.66 RUR

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Michael Gilliland The Business Forecasting Deal. Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions


Practical-nontechnical-solutions to the problems of business forecasting Written in a nontechnical style, this book provides practical solutions to common business forecasting problems, showing you how to think about business forecasting in the context of uncertainty, randomness and process performance. Addresses the philosophical foundations of forecasting Raises awareness of fundamental issues usually overlooked in pursuit of the perfect forecast Introduces a new way to think about business forecasting, focusing on process efficiency and the elimination of worst practices Provides practical approaches for the non-statistical problems forecasters face Illustrates Forecast Value Added (FVA) Analysis for identifying waste in the forecasting process Couched in the context of uncertainty, randomness, and process performance, this book offers new, innovative ideas for resolving your business forecasting problems.

3138.26 RUR

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Pekka Tiusanen Real Estate Price Forecasting in Finland


Master's Thesis from the year 2017 in the subject Business economics - Miscellaneous, , language: English, abstract: There is an abundance of existing literature regarding time series forecasting and the housing market. This thesis evaluates the performance and statistical adequacy of several time series models in the context of real estate price forecasting in Finland. Each statistical model is applied so that forecasts are generated over the seven quarters following the training sample. The resulting forecasts are compared against realized price development. Model evaluation is carried out from the viewpoint of forecasting errors in the validation period, statistical fit, modelling constraints and success in the light of the theoretical framework. It was concluded that scarce ARIMA-based models are suitable for short-term real estate price forecasting in the concerned setting. The models were built on logarithmic I(1) nominal data and augmented with seasonal dummy variables. The Chen & Liu (1993) structural anomaly detection method enhanced statistical fit in the training period and forecasting accuracy in the validation period. The inclusion of a drift parameter generally led to inflated forecasting results in the validation period. The RMSE and MAE error statistics produced by the best ARIMA-based models remained well below 0.5 % in the validation period. The Holt & Winters and I(1) OLS models were also outperformed by the most adept ARIMA-based models. The in...

6277 RUR

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W. D. Gann The Master Commodity Course. Original Market Trading Course


W. D. Gann's Commodities Trading Course is an extensive course. This course gives you a number of different trading techniques and skills. Which include: charting, chart interpretation, using Gann Angles, Squaring Price and Time, using Gann Squares, Square of Nine, Gann Numbers, Gann Calculators and more. This course consists of Gann's original course he sold in the early 1950's for a reported $5,000. Here is a listing of the subjects covered in this Course: Speculation; a Profitable Profession. Mechanical Method and Trend Indicator Rules for Trading in Grains The Basis of My Forecasting Methods for Grains Forecasting by Time Cycles. The Basis of My Forecasting Method for Cotton Mechanical Method and New Trend Indicator for Cotton Cash and May Soybean Futures Master Egg Course Master Charts Supplement Section

8177 RUR

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Peter Hirschbichler Order Quantity Forecasting for the Fashion Industry


Master's Thesis from the year 2010 in the subject Computer Science - Applied, grade: 1, Fachhochschule Salzburg (Information Technology und Systems Management), language: English, abstract: Precise order quantity forecasting for fashion retailers is difficult, because of the specific nature of fashion products namely long lead times, seasonality, and product attributes suchas sizes, colours, and cuts. This thesis contributes to order quantity forecasting for fashion products by the use of regression analysis. For this purpose, forecasting techniques in general, and parametric as well as nonparametric regression analysis in articular are presented. This is followed by fundamentals of data mining, specifically data preprocessing and data warehousing, in order to be able to apply regression analysis on historical sales data. Furthermore, to examine the quality of forecasts a method forevaluating the economical benefit of order quantity forecasting was developed.As a next step, the presented methods for forecasting were applied to historical sales data. Therefore, sales data was analysed, regression models were applied and forecasts werecalculated and evaluated finally. This thesis is concluded by suggesting a forecasting implementation and by discussing the contributions to order quantity forecasting.

3752 RUR

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Kostas Nikolopoulos I. Forecasting With The Theta Method. Theory and Applications


The first book to be published on the Theta method, outlining under what conditions the method outperforms other forecasting methods This book is the first to detail the Theta method of forecasting – one of the most difficult-to-beat forecasting benchmarks, which topped the biggest forecasting competition in the world in 2000: the M3 competition. Written by two of the leading experts in the forecasting field, it illuminates the exact replication of the method and under what conditions the method outperforms other forecasting methods. Recent developments such as multivariate models are also included, as are a series of practical applications in finance, economics, and healthcare. The book also offers practical tools in MS Excel and guidance, as well as provisional access, for the use of R source code and respective packages. Forecasting with the Theta Method: Theory and Applications includes three main parts. The first part, titled Theory, Methods, Models & Applications details the new theory about the method. The second part, Applications & Performance in Forecasting Competitions, describes empirical results and simulations on the method. The last part roadmaps future research and also include contributions from another leading scholar of the method – Dr. Fotios Petropoulos. First ever book to be published on the Theta Method Explores new theory and exact conditions under which methods would outperform most forecasting benchmarks Clearly written with practical applications Employs R – open source code with all included implementations Forecasting with the Theta Method: Theory and Applications is a valuable tool for both academics and practitioners involved in forecasting and respective software development.

8142.51 RUR

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Dr. Mohamed E. El-Hawary Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems. Load Price Forecasting


A comprehensive review of state-of-the-art approaches to power systems forecasting from the most respected names in the field, internationally Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is the first book devoted exclusively to a subject of increasing urgency to power systems planning and operations. Written for practicing engineers, researchers, and post-grads concerned with power systems planning and forecasting, this book brings together contributions from many of the world’s foremost names in the field who address a range of critical issues, from forecasting power system load to power system pricing to post-storm service restoration times, river flow forecasting, and more. In a time of ever-increasing energy demands, mounting concerns over the environmental impacts of power generation, and the emergence of new, smart-grid technologies, electricity price forecasting has assumed a prominent role within both the academic and industrial arenas. Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every maximization strategy. This book fills a gap in the literature on this increasingly important topic. Following an introductory chapter offering background information necessary for a full understanding of the forecasting issues covered, this book: Introduces advanced methods of time series forecasting, as well as neural networks Provides in-depth coverage of state-of-the-art power system load forecasting and electricity price forecasting Addresses river flow forecasting based on autonomous neural network models Deals with price forecasting in a competitive market Includes estimation of post-storm restoration times for electric power distribution systems Features contributions from world-renowned experts sharing their insights and expertise in a series of self-contained chapters Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is a valuable resource for practicing engineers, regulators, planners, and consultants working in or concerned with the electric power industry. It is also a must read for senior undergraduates, graduate students, and researchers involved in power system planning and operation.

9335.46 RUR

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Alexander Harin Hypothesis (principle) of uncertain future. Utility theory. Economics. Forecasting


Premises, formulation, consequences and applications of a hypothesis (principle) of uncertain future are reviewed. The hypothesis can be used in economics, especially in utility theory, and in forecasting.

369 RUR

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Stephan Kolassa, Enno Siemsen Demand Forecasting for Managers


Most decisions and plans in a firm require a forecast. Not matching supply with demand can make or break any business, and that's why forecasting is so invaluable. Forecasting can appear as a frightening topic with many arcane equations to master. For this reason, the authors start out from the very basics and provide a non-technical overview of common forecasting techniques as well as organizational aspects of creating a robust forecasting process. The book also discusses how to measure forecast accuracy to hold people accountable and guide continuous improvement. This book does not require prior knowledge of higher mathematics, statistics, or operations research. It is designed to serve as a first introduction to the non-expert, such as a manager overseeing a forecasting group, or an MBA student who needs to be familiar with the broad outlines of forecasting without specializing in it.

4502 RUR

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Kaoru Tone Advances in DEA Theory and Applications. With Extensions to Forecasting Models


A key resource and framework for assessing the performance of competing entities, including forecasting models Advances in DEA Theory and Applications provides a much-needed framework for assessing the performance of competing entities with special emphasis on forecasting models. It helps readers to determine the most appropriate methodology in order to make the most accurate decisions for implementation. Written by a noted expert in the field, this text provides a review of the latest advances in DEA theory and applications to the field of forecasting. Designed for use by anyone involved in research in the field of forecasting or in another application area where forecasting drives decision making, this text can be applied to a wide range of contexts, including education, health care, banking, armed forces, auditing, market research, retail outlets, organizational effectiveness, transportation, public housing, and manufacturing. This vital resource: Explores the latest developments in DEA frameworks for the performance evaluation of entities such as public or private organizational branches or departments, economic sectors, technologies, and stocks Presents a novel area of application for DEA; namely, the performance evaluation of forecasting models Promotes the use of DEA to assess the performance of forecasting models in a wide area of applications Provides rich, detailed examples and case studies Advances in DEA Theory and Applications includes information on a balanced benchmarking tool that is designed to help organizations examine their assumptions about their productivity and performance.

8215.21 RUR

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William S. Plumer Writings of Plumer, Three Books on Faith


Writings of William S. Plumer, Three Books on Faith includes three of Plumer's works:Assurance of Grace and Salvation, Balm for Wounded Spirits, False Doctrines and False Teachers. William Plumer was an American lawyer, Baptist lay preacher and represented New Hampshire as a Federalist in the United States Senate. He later served as a Governor of New Hampshire.

802 RUR

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David Bruce William S Henry V. A Retelling in Prose


This is an easy-to-read retelling of William Shakespeare's "Henry V," a history play that includes King Henry V of England's victory in the Battle of Agincourt.

1202 RUR

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David Bruce William S Hamlet. A Retelling in Prose


This is a retelling of William Shakespeare's "Hamlet" in modern English. If people read this version first, they will understand Shakespeare's original version much better.

1314 RUR

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William Shakespeare Love's Labours Lost


Classic Books Library presents this new beautiful edition of William Shakespeare's comedy, "Love's Labour's Lost". Featuring a specially commissioned new biography of William Shakespeare, it is a must for Shakespeare enthusiasts and newcomers alike. "Love's Labour's Lost", revolves around Ferdinand, King of Navarre, and his three companions, who enter a pact in which they swear to avoid women for three years. This oath is tested to its limits when the Princess of France arrives with her company of ladies. The young men subsequently lose their resolves, resulting in an unexpected, comical twist. William Shakespeare (1564 - 1616) was an English playwright, poet, and actor. He is considered to be the greatest writer in the English language and is celebrated as the world's most famous dramatist.

1364 RUR

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David Bruce William Shakespeare's The Winter's Tale. A Retelling in Prose


This is an easy-to-read version of William Shakespeare's romance "The Winter's Tale." People who read this retelling first will find Shakespeare's play easier to read and understand.

1102 RUR

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William Shakespeare The Merry Wives of Windsor


Classic Books Library presents this new beautiful edition of William Shakespeare's play, "The Merry Wives of Windsor", featuring a specially commissioned new biography of William Shakespeare. Set in the English town of Windsor, this play revolves around the antics of fictional character Sir John Falstaff and his attempts to seduce two housewives in order to access their husbands' fortunes. However, luck doesn't go his way and he is outsmarted and subjected to public ridicule. Falstaff is considered one of the Shakespeare's most famous comic characters and he appears in four of Shakespeare's history plays. William Shakespeare (1564 - 1616) was an English playwright, poet, and actor. He is considered to be the greatest writer in the English language and is celebrated as the world's most famous dramatist.

1364 RUR

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Murat Kulahci Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting


Praise for the First Edition «…[t]he book is great for readers who need to apply the methods and models presented but have little background in mathematics and statistics.» -MAA Reviews Thoroughly updated throughout, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition presents the underlying theories of time series analysis that are needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct real-world short- to medium-term statistical forecasts. Authored by highly-experienced academics and professionals in engineering statistics, the Second Edition features discussions on both popular and modern time series methodologies as well as an introduction to Bayesian methods in forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition also includes: Over 300 exercises from diverse disciplines including health care, environmental studies, engineering, and finance More than 50 programming algorithms using JMP®, SAS®, and R that illustrate the theory and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data New material on frequency domain and spatial temporal data analysis Expanded coverage of the variogram and spectrum with applications as well as transfer and intervention model functions A supplementary website featuring PowerPoint® slides, data sets, and select solutions to the problems Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition is an ideal textbook upper-undergraduate and graduate-levels courses in forecasting and time series. The book is also an excellent reference for practitioners and researchers who need to model and analyze time series data to generate forecasts.

10083.01 RUR

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Dorling Steve Operational Weather Forecasting


This book offers a complete primer, covering the end-to-end process of forecast production, and bringing together a description of all the relevant aspects together in a single volume; with plenty of explanation of some of the more complex issues and examples of current, state-of-the-art practices. Operational Weather Forecasting covers the whole process of forecast production, from understanding the nature of the forecasting problem, gathering the observational data with which to initialise and verify forecasts, designing and building a model (or models) to advance those initial conditions forwards in time and then interpreting the model output and putting it into a form which is relevant to customers of weather forecasts. Included is the generation of forecasts on the monthly-to-seasonal timescales, often excluded in text-books despite this type of forecasting having been undertaken for several years. This is a rapidly developing field, with a lot of variations in practices between different forecasting centres. Thus the authors have tried to be as generic as possible when describing aspects of numerical model design and formulation. Despite the reliance on NWP, the human forecaster still has a big part to play in producing weather forecasts and this is described, along with the issue of forecast verification – how forecast centres measure their own performance and improve upon it. Advanced undergraduates and postgraduate students will use this book to understand how the theory comes together in the day-to-day applications of weather forecast production. In addition, professional weather forecasting practitioners, professional users of weather forecasts and trainers will all find this new member of the RMetS Advancing Weather and Climate series a valuable tool. Provides an end-to-end description of the weather forecasting process Clearly structured and pitched at an accessible level, the book discusses the practical choices that operational forecasting centres have to make in terms of what numerical models they use and when they are run. Takes a very practical approach, using real life case-studies to contextualize information Discusses the latest advances in the area, including ensemble methods, monthly to seasonal range prediction and use of ‘nowcasting’ tools such as radar and satellite imagery Full colour throughout Written by a highly respected team of authors with experience in both academia and practice. Part of the RMetS book series ‘Advancing Weather and Climate’

12436.17 RUR

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Nada Sanders Forecasting Fundamentals


This book is for everyone who wants to make better forecasts. It is not about mathematics and statistics. It is about following a well-established forecasting process to create and implement good forecasts. This is true whether you are forecasting global markets, sales of SKUs, competitive strategy, or market disruptions. Today, most forecasts are generated using software. However, no amount of technology and statistics can compensate for a poor forecasting process. Forecasting is not just about generating a number. Forecasters need to understand the problems they are trying to solve. They also need to follow a process that is justifiable to other parties and be implemented in practice. This is what the book is about. Accurate forecasts are essential for predicting demand, identifying new market opportunities, forecasting risks, disruptions, innovation, competition, market growth and trends. Companies can navigate this daunting landscape and improve their forecasts by following some well-established principles. This book is written to provide the fundamentals business leaders need in order to make good forecasts. These fundamentals hold true regardless of what is being forecast and what technology is being used. It provides the basic foundational principles all companies need to achieve competitive forecast accuracy.

4552 RUR

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David Bruce William S Coriolanus. A Retelling in Prose


This is an easy-to-read version of William Shakespeare's tragedy "Coriolanus." People who read this retelling first will find Shakespeare's play easier to read and understand.

1227 RUR

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David Bruce William S A Well that Ends Well. Retelling in Prose


This book is an easy-to-read retelling of William Shakespeare's classic comedy "All's Well that Ends Well." People who read this retelling first will find the original play much easier to understand.

1189 RUR

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William Shakespeare Pericles, Prince of Tyre


Classic Books Library presents this new beautiful edition of William Shakespeare's play, "Pericles, Prince of Tyre", featuring a specially commissioned new biography of William Shakespeare. In "Pericles", a father loses his wife, who dies at sea during childbirth. Upon land, Pericles entrusts his new-born daughter, Marina, to the Governor of Tarsus and his wife. Fourteen years later, Marina escapes a deadly plan, devised by the jealous Governor's wife, with an equally dire outcome. In a twist of fate, a family is reunited. Each scene in the play is introduced with a prologue, told by John Gower, an English poet from the past. William Shakespeare (1564 - 1616) was an English playwright, poet, and actor. He is considered to be the greatest writer in the English language and is celebrated as the world's most famous dramatist.

1402 RUR

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William Shakespeare Two Gentlemen of Verona


Classic Books Library presents this new beautiful edition of William Shakespeare's play, "Two Gentlemen of Verona". Featuring a specially commissioned new biography of William Shakespeare, it is a must for Shakespeare enthusiasts and newcomers alike. The play explores the themes of friendship, loyalty, and the foolish behaviour caused by love. Two friends, Valentine and Proteus, leave Verona for Milan. Valentine and the Duke's daughter, Sylvia, fall in love. The fickle Proteus, who has pledged his love to Julia, decides that Sylvia must be his and embarks upon sabotage and betrayal in pursuit of his desires. Meanwhile, Julia travels to Milan in a male disguise. William Shakespeare (1564 - 1616) was an English playwright, poet, and actor. He is considered to be the greatest writer in the English language and is celebrated as the world's most famous dramatist.

1402 RUR

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William Shakespeare Henry IV, Part I


Classic Books Library presents this new beautiful edition of William Shakespeare's play, "Henry IV, Part 1", featuring a specially commissioned new biography of William Shakespeare. It is the second in Shakespeare's tetralogy of plays chronicling the successive reigns of Richard II, Henry IV and Henry V. Following civil disputes, the crown is in jeopardy. As King Henry IV prepares to defend it, Prince Hal, his heir, revels with his friend Sir Falstaff in a local tavern. Matters of the high court fall to the Prince, who is summoned into action. William Shakespeare (1564 - 1616) was an English playwright, poet, and actor. He is considered to be the greatest writer in the English language and is celebrated as the world's most famous dramatist.

1364 RUR

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Tim Rey, Arthur Kordon, Chip Wells Applied Data Mining for Forecasting Using SAS


Applied Data Mining for Forecasting Using SAS, by Tim Rey, Arthur Kordon, and Chip Wells, introduces and describes approaches for mining large time series data sets. Written for forecasting practitioners, engineers, statisticians, and economists, the book details how to select useful candidate input variables for time series regression models in environments when the number of candidates is large, and identifies the correlation structure between selected candidate inputs and the forecast variable.

6427 RUR

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Cengage Learning Gale A Study Guide for William F Light in August


A Study Guide for William Faulkner's "Light in August," excerpted from Gale's acclaimed Novels for Students. This concise study guide includes plot summary; character analysis; author biography; study questions; historical context; suggestions for further reading; and much more. For any literature project, trust Novels for Students for all of your research needs.

1414 RUR

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Michael Gilliland Business Forecasting. Practical Problems and Solutions


A comprehensive collection of the field's most provocative, influential new work Business Forecasting compiles some of the field's important and influential literature into a single, comprehensive reference for forecast modeling and process improvement. It is packed with provocative ideas from forecasting researchers and practitioners, on topics including accuracy metrics, benchmarking, modeling of problem data, and overcoming dysfunctional behaviors. Its coverage includes often-overlooked issues at the forefront of research, such as uncertainty, randomness, and forecastability, as well as emerging areas like data mining for forecasting. The articles present critical analysis of current practices and consideration of new ideas. With a mix of formal, rigorous pieces and brief introductory chapters, the book provides practitioners with a comprehensive examination of the current state of the business forecasting field. Forecasting performance is ultimately limited by the 'forecastability' of the data. Yet failing to recognize this, many organizations continue to squander resources pursuing unachievable levels of accuracy. This book provides a wealth of ideas for improving all aspects of the process, including the avoidance of wasted efforts that fail to improve (or even harm) forecast accuracy. Analyzes the most prominent issues in business forecasting Investigates emerging approaches and new methods of analysis Combines forecasts to improve accuracy Utilizes Forecast Value Added to identify process inefficiency The business environment is evolving, and forecasting methods must evolve alongside it. This compilation delivers an array of new tools and research that can enable more efficient processes and more accurate results. Business Forecasting provides an expert's-eye view of the field's latest developments to help you achieve your desired business outcomes.

3138.26 RUR

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